
President Obama's 2011 budget does not include funds for Project Constellation, NASA's deep space sequel to the Apollo programme. In a move that has surprised the US aerospace community, Obama has instead opted to cancel Ares I and V in favour of outsourcing US human spaceflight to New Space companies.
While many spaceflight commentators believed that the Obama budget would heavily favour private companies to launch crew and payload to the ISS, it now seems as if New Space will be relied upon for ALL future US access to orbit and beyond; NASA it seems, are to be taken back to their routes as an essential research and development arm of the US government.
So what will the future of US human spaceflight look like? Well, it will look something like this.
Say the US government wants to return a couple of hundred pounds of rock from Ares Vallis on Mars. Instead of NASA designing and building its own rocket, NASA will instead purchase the use of an already existing Heavy Lift private rocket to accomplish its goals. Where no privately operated Heavy Lift system exists, NASA will specify its requirements and the private sector will, in turn, (without cost plus) build such a system in order to service NASA's goals - (see SpaceX's idea for a Super Heavy Falcon).
A good analogy to the new plan is airline travel. Governments don't run airlines, private companies build and operate the planes. Passengers simply pay the cost of the flight. Imagine similar for space travel and you have the gist of the Obama plan.
With many private rocket builders and operators inhabiting the market, diversity and competition will drive down costs so that the expense of space travel will begin to fall. This is the dream of all New Space entrepreneurs, but will it happen?
While the Obama 'vision' is revolutionary, it also has its detractors, who point out the need for the US government to create an operational market into which the New Space rocket and vehicle builders can move. While the ISS is a fitting target, a far more fascinating target would have been the Moon. With the loss of Constellation, there will be somewhat of a loss of energy to move beyond LEO - even if New Space does successfully make it up there. Imagine a New Space company that specialises in extracting H20 from lunar soil and you get an idea of the opportunity that has been missed with the loss of Constellation.
With the imminent launch of SpaceX's Falcon 9, we shall soon see if Obama was right in placing America's eggs in a single basket.